High Speed Rail (HSR) is high on many people’s list of what America needs. Politicians talk of a future of HSR. The proposed Green New Deal brings the promise of HSR. Rail advocates continuously proclaim that America needs HSR.
The frequent argument in favor of HSR is something along the lines of They all have them, we need them too.
We are led to believe by some of the HSR promotion that everyone else in the world is riding bullet trains (so we should too).
Let’s have a look at the Chinese HSR situation. The situation is similar wherever there is HSR, but China is a frequently used example because the service is new, extensive, and was developed quickly.
A look at some statistics paints a different picture. There are a lot of numbers here. They aren’t to be memorized or even understood in other than way more than, way less than or similar. They lead up to a conclusion after the bullet points if you want to skip the details and go right to the conclusion. Following the conclusion is a link to a video about HSR development in China.
- China has the largest population of any country in the world, 325 percent more than the US population.China is slightly smaller in land area than the US, about 97 percent of the US land area.
- The population density of China (people per square mile) is 30th in the world when US states are counted as countries (DC, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Delaware, and New York are more densely populated than China), otherwise it is 18th. China has some densely populated areas and a lot of open space, similar in configuration to the US.
- The rail network of China, about 58,000 miles, is 66 percent of the size of the US rail network.
- China has 15 percent of the US rail route miles per person and 68 percent of the US rail route miles per square mile.
China is similar size to the US, has a greater population than the US, a smaller rail network, and like the US, has a lot of sparsely populated area.
Comparing rail network effectiveness:
- The number of rail passengers in the US is 0.08 percent of the number of rail passengers in China.
- Passenger miles (number of passengers carried multiplied by number of miles they traveled, the standard measurement for passenger transportation) per rail route mile in China is 110 percent more than in the US. Ton miles (number of tons carried multiplied by the number of miles, the standard measurement for freight transportation) per rail route mile in China is 38 percent more than in the US.
- Railroads in China carry 77 percent more freight tonnage carried by US railroads. That is 82 percent more tonnage per square mile than the freight handled by US railroads.
- In combined passenger miles and ton miles per route mile (a measure of rail network utilization), rail network utilization in China is 2.2 times US rail network utilization. When the exclusive HSR mileage is removed so that only the conventional network is considered, Rail network utilization in China is 2.5 times US rail network utilization.
- 56 percent of Chinese rail passengers ride HSR. The rest ride conventional trains.
- 28 percent of the rail route miles of China have a speed limit of over 150 mph. Although China has trains capable of over 220 mph, the maximum speed is generally about 185 mph. Only nine percent of the world’s HSR has a maximum speed of over 185 mph. One percent has a maximum speed of over 200 mph.
This boils down to the rail network in China is more effective in general than the US rail network. It is smaller and does more. The Chinese network transports a larger number of passengers than the US railroad network while simultaneously carrying more freight tonnage.
HST in China, like elsewhere, came about after the conventional network was fully utilized and could no longer be sufficiently improved. China is making substantial improvement to the conventional network as well as building an extensive HSR network. However, the HSR program gets all the spotlight in the US.
While US rail transportation is measured in profitability, the Chinese measure their rail network in effectiveness. That makes a big difference in outcome.
In the US, investment in marine, air, and highway transportation infrastructure is not restricted by the need to be profitable. That also makes a big difference in outcome. The ineffectiveness of the US rail network is related to US government emphasis on competing modes.
The US railroads that ‘opened up the west’ were generally economic failures for the folks who built them. Most US railroads have been bankrupt at least once. Some were resurrected or merged into larger railroads. Some were closed and removed completely. However, they all made a great economic difference to the nation.
The Eurotunnel (under the English Channel) was not a great financial success to the builders, but is an important economic contributor to the EU economy (given that the UK is still part of the EU).
This video explains the rail improvements being made in China, conventional and HSR.
Rail transportation uses two thirds less energy than highway transportation It is a climate emergency solution, even when diesel locomotives are used. When electrified, rail transportation will reduce the need for new power generation by two-thirds.
However, HSR is not a climate emergency solution for the US.
Greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 50 percent within the next ten years to prevent passing the tipping point – the point of no return. The US is too far behind in rail system development. It is not prepared for HSR. The environmental documentation, mitigation, property acquisition and the resultant litigation, and engineering needed in preparation for HSR construction will take well over the decade before we reach the climate change tipping point. HSR can be constructed concurrently if it does not interfere with developing conventional passenger and freight rail transportation.
TAW